Superman, The Empire Strikes Back, Never Say Never Again and Lone Survivor. What do these films have in common?
They were all financed and distributed according to a negative pickup arrangement. Even Terry Gilliam’s Brazil, a negative pickup for Universal Pictures produced by Arnon Milchan: in this particular case, the studio had creative disagreements with the director over choice of star, content, and duration, and failed to resolve these issues to its satisfaction, because the negative pickup had essentially granted Milchan final cut.
The negative pickup is a type of film financing arrangement, an interparty agreement in which the parties involved are bank, completion guarantor, producer, and distributor, usually bank financed with the collateral being a Distribution Agreement from a trusted and creditworthy Distributor or Studio then owning distribution rights upon delivery of a completed film negative by a stipulated date and in accordance with the terms of the agreement, where the pickup price shall include cost of budget (which has to include a completion bond which premium usually amounts 3-5% of the production budget and contingency), cost of interest, origination fee, bank and legal expenses.
According to the annual Theatrical Market Statistics Report for 2014 by the Motion Picture Association of America, Inc. (MPAA) released yesterday, the global box office increased by 1% to a new record of $36.4 billion. Domestic (U.S./Canada) dropped by 5% at $10.4 billion. The Asia Pacific region was up by 12% overall, whereas China’s total of $4.8 billion (first international market to exceed $4 billion) was up a huge 34%, which alone improved the combined global total. Latin America box office increased 2% (but is up 46% from 2010) to $3 billion, Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) decreased 3% ($10.9 to $10.6 billion) from 2013, due to decreases in larger European markets such as Germany (-7%) and the U.K. (-1%).
Worldwide fans of Congressman Francis Underwood’s adventures are going nuts for the release of Season 3. Yet the market is not impressed: NFLX share price dropped by 1.68% on the same day.
In fact, analyst widely agree Netflix current valuation (Nasdaq: NFLX) depends heavily on its ability on creating quality original programming and marketing them effectively. The uncertainty on future strategy which causes high volatility and recently determined a fully recovered sharp 26.4% drop needs to be addressed more clearly.
Netflix said its 320 hours of original programming in 2015 actually cost less than most of its licensed content. “We try to make each project more efficient and effective than studio content we’d otherwise be licensing,” the company said in its fourth-quarter investor letter.
For its part, Netflix has been transparent about its ramp-up in spending for original content that brought 45 Emmy, 10 Golden Globe and two Academy Award nominations and several wins in just two years. “We will continue to grow the percentage of our content spending dedicated to originals for the next several years,” the company said. Continue reading “Netflix valuation, a House of Cards?”